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Why Chargers vs. Chiefs may not be as high-scoring as expected, plus other best bets for Thursday

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Hello, it is I, Tom Fornelli, and I cannot properly explain to you how happy I am to be back in your inbox today. It has been a long week in my household, and the days won’t get shorter soon. You might remember watching the Chicago Bears beat the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday in a game that was played in extremely wet conditions. After the Bears kneeled out the win, Justin Fields and his teammates celebrated by treating the Soldier Field turf as a water slide.

Well, the turf at Soldier Field was not the only part of Chicago to be converted into a lake Sunday afternoon. My basement was as well. My office and a lot of my equipment were destroyed, but I’ve finally been able to climb out of the lake long enough to write a newsletter. And I couldn’t be happier. Seriously, I am in desperate need of a win right now, but before we get to tonight’s bets, let’s catch up on what else has been happening in the world as I try to drown out the noise of all those fans downstairs.

All right, now that we’re caught up, let’s bet on some sports.

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

Chargers at Chiefs, 8:15 p.m. | TV: Amazon

Latest Odds:

Under 54

  • Key Trend: The under is 10-1 in the Chargers last 11 September games
  • The Pick: Under 54 (-110)

Considering the matchup, I’m not surprised to find the total this high. The Chiefs are still the Chiefs, and the Chargers have an excellent offense of their own. But I don’t think the total should be this high.

The Chargers’ defense should be improved over what we saw last season. It’s designed to take away the deep ball and keep things underneath. With Tyreek Hill in Miami now, I’m not sure the Chiefs have the personnel remaining to beat what the Chargers are trying to do. Further, by adding Khalil Mack, the Chargers have improved their pass rush, meaning Patrick Mahomes won’t have as much time to take those deep shots.

On the other side, I think…

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