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The Twins’ Third Base Decision

The Twins' Third Base Decision

The Twins were one of baseball’s most aggressive teams last spring, and they’re in for another active offseason over the coming months. Carlos Correa has already implied he plans to opt out of the final two years of his contract, as expected. How to proceed at shortstop may be the biggest question facing president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and his staff, but they’ll also have a call to make at the other position on the left side of the infield.

This past season, third base was primarily the purview of Gio Urshela. Acquired from the Yankees alongside Gary Sánchez in the deal that offloaded Josh Donaldson’s contract and sent Isiah Kiner-Falefa to the Bronx, Urshela went on to start 131 games at the hot corner in Minneapolis. He stepped to the plate 551 times and hit at a solid .285/.338/.429 clip with 13 home runs and 27 doubles. By measure of wRC+, the Colombia native was 19 percentage points better than the league average hitter.

That represented a bounceback from a pedestrian final season in the Bronx, when Urshela hit .267/.301/.419 through 442 trips to the dish. He didn’t recapture his breakout 2019-20 form — a combined .310/.358/.523 mark — but he no doubt had a productive offensive season. He finished the year well, hitting .294/.343/.419 after the calendar flipped to September. Urshela doesn’t take many walks, but he makes contact at an above-average rate and has enough power to approach or exceed 30 doubles and 15 homers during his best seasons.

While Urshela has been an above-average hitter in three of the past four seasons, his defense draws more variable feedback from public metrics. Ultimate Zone Rating has consistently pegged him as an above-average third baseman, which aligns with the general reputation he’d had as a prospect. Defensive Runs Saved has varied in its enthusiasm for his work but comes in slightly positive overall, while Statcast’s Outs Above Average has rated him as a below-average defender in every season of his career. There’s a fair bit of variability in all public defensive metrics, but Urshela has proven particularly divisive across those measures. Consider his cumulative runs compared to average as a third baseman by each measure since he emerged as a regular with the Yankees in 2019:

  • UZR: +6.4
  • DRS: +5
  • Statcast: -9

The Twins’ internal evaluation of Urshela’s defense could go a long way towards determining how they proceed at third base. The 31-year-old is under club control…

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