Of all the MLB rule changes that will impact fantasy leagues this year, the limitations on defensive shifts might be the toughest to predict. This is a rule change that will impact each player differently, as some batters faced extreme shifts more often than others in recent years. Additionally, some batters might try to alter their batted-ball profile in response to new defensive alignments, while others will keep things the way they were and hope their batted balls find holes with greater regularity.
Never one to back down from a challenge, here are my best guesses as to which players will see their batting averages rise as a result of the shift limitations.
[Batter up: Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Baseball league for free today]
NOTE: You’ll notice that every name on this list is that of a left-handed hitter, as those who batted from the left side and pulled plenty of balls were greatly impacted by the opposition’s ability to load up on the first-base side of the diamond.
Among players who faced more than 1,000 pitches last year, no one encountered the shift more than Pasquantino (93.8%). Despite facing overloaded defenses, the lefty slugger hit .295 in 2022 on the strength of an outstanding 11.4% strikeout rate. Managers don’t need much imagination to see how he could lead the majors in batting average this year.
The good news: Seager hit a career-high 33 homers last year. The bad news: His .245 average was more than 20 points lower than his mark in any previous season. Seager’s strikeout rate remained consistent last year, and his .283 xBA showed that he deserved better luck. Better fortune and limitations on shifts could lead to a year-over-year average bump of 50-plus points.
Among players who faced 2,000 pitches, only Seager encountered shifts more often than Tucker. The 26-year-old is part of one of baseball’s best lineups, smacked 30 homers in two straight seasons and posted a career-high 25 steals last year, which means he is a batting-average bump away from being a top-five fantasy asset.
Kepler was a fantasy star during the juiced-ball season in 2019 (36 HRs, .252 BA) but has shown just middling power (37 HRs in 284 games) while batting below .230 the past three years. The lefty slugger consistently faced extreme shifts in that stretch, and his xBA in each of those three seasons was above .250. A late-round afterthought this year, Kepler could soon be back on the shallow-league radar.
Coming off a 46-homer, 194-R+RBI…