The term “bust” might be harsh for some, but the following players are being overvalued in fantasy baseball drafts. For sleepers, go here.
McCarthy has clear fantasy appeal with stolen base upside, but realize he has a .235 career expected batting average with an ice cold Statcast batted ball profile. He’s also not a great defensive outfielder (unlike Corbin Carroll and Alek Thomas), and there’s a chance Kyle Lewis becomes the superior option at the plate.
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Grissom has fewer than 100 plate appearances above Single-A in the minors and is being asked to play a new position and move to shortstop in Atlanta this season. There’s power/speed potential here, but Grissom will be hitting at the bottom of the Braves’ lineup and has a floor that includes a trip back to the minors.
Rutschman is going to be incredibly valuable to the Orioles, with a high walk rate and outstanding defense, but he’s overvalued in being drafted as a top-five catcher (and in the seventh/eighth round). Among catchers, THE BAT X projects Rutschman to finish top-three in WAR but not top-10 in homers or batting average — and not top-five in runs scored, RBIs or stolen bases. His home park does him no favors, either.
Jansen is locked in as Boston’s closer but is in the decline phase of his career, and as one of the slowest pitchers in baseball, he could be affected by the pitch clock. Garrett Whitlock could emerge as a superior option to close in Boston at some point this season.
Steele is being drafted inside the top 250 picks despite incredibly shaky peripherals. He managed just four wins with a 3.18 ERA across 24 starts last year and will likely struggle in the category again this year still pitching for the Cubs and with an ERA almost certain to rise. Steele somehow has a higher Yahoo ADP than Tyler Mahle, Sean Manaea, Kodai Senga, Noah Syndergaard and Kenta Maeda, among others who should be drafted ahead of him.
Michael Kopech is too deep of a pick, so let’s go with Cease as overvalued. He’s a very good pitcher who is now being drafted as a great one, as a borderline top-10 fantasy starter. Expecting some regression in BABIP and HR/FB%, THE BAT projects a 3.86 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP — neither of which would’ve been top 30 among starters last year. Similar fantasy pitchers are available multiple rounds later.
Greene is one of the hardest throwing starters in MLB history, and his…
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