The current top three players in 5X5 fantasy baseball leagues are as follows: Atlanta Braves outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr. (no surprise), New York Yankees starting pitcher Gerrit Cole (no surprise) and Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Matt Chapman (wait, what?!).
Now, we’re barely a month into the season — shenanigans in the rankings should be expected; Jorge Mateo follows Chapman at No. 4, and we know that’s not going to last. But Chapman is a curious case, as this is a player with pedigree and a history littered with spurts of greatness. Sure, we know Chapman is a defensive demon at the hot corner, but his bat has lagged behind a bit, especially in recent seasons.
Chapman hit his fifth home run Wednesday, putting him in a tie for fourth on the current homer leaderboard. He has the highest batting average in baseball (min. 65 ABs) — shocking for a guy who has been barely over the Mendoza line the past few seasons.
Could he be having a mid-to-late-career breakout? Let’s take a look.
Let’s get the obvious out of the way: Chapman was a clear candidate to be one of the beneficiaries of the new shifting rules, as the third baseman had become a primary victim of over-shifting, with his pull-ball tendencies being rendered virtually toothless. But I don’t think anyone could have predicted this level of positive regression. Specifically, his plate approach. As mentioned, Chapman had become a batting average drain the past few seasons, so much so that it was his glove keeping him in lineups. Some seriously ugly K percentages overpowered otherwise acceptable walk numbers. And his power — evident throughout his career in his .476 slugging percentage — couldn’t make up for his struggles in the other categories.
Things have changed so far in this young season. Chapman has become a four-category superstar in fantasy, delivering a gaudy average, the aforementioned five bombs and 30 R+RBIs. Hitting in the Blue Jays’ potent lineup certainly helps, but Chapman has been the team’s best hitter.
He has lowered his strikeout percentage to 21.1 so far; the last time it was under 25 was in 2019, Chapman’s lone All-Star season, when he hit .249/.342/.506 with 36 home runs and an .848 OPS. While this might not be his norm, he has a precedent of being able to hit like this; it isn’t just luck.
Luck isn’t completely out of the equation, however. Chapman is sporting an inflated .468 BABIP, one that will surely regress to the mean; he’s not going to hit .397 the rest of…