Three reasons why Braves have looked less than dominant so far: Ronald Acuña Jr.’s struggles and more

The Atlanta Braves haven’t been themselves lately. They’ve dropped two straight series, the most recent of which was a sweep by their fellow National League juggernaut, the Dodgers. At the same time, they recently ceded first place in the NL East to the Phillies. That’s the first time they’ve been out of first place in the division since April 2 of last year. In matters related, our Matt Snyder dropped them out of the top spot in his most recent Power Rankings. 

Let’s not overstate the dire nature of things. The Braves going into Monday’s day off are still 20-12, which puts them on a 101-win pace. As well, SportsLine gives them a 98.3% chance of making the playoffs and better than 50-50 odds of fending off the Phillies for the division crown. All that said, the Braves haven’t been themselves lately, and there are reasons for that, some of which may go beyond their current funk. Let’s have a quick look at those.

1. The core hitters haven’t yet found their expected levels

The 2023 Braves were an offensive powerhouse. They led the league in runs scored and OPS and batted a remarkable .276/.344/.501 as a team. Ten players reached double digits in home runs, and another, Kevin Pillar, had nine. As a team, they topped 300 homers for the season. Thus far in 2024, however, some of the shine has come off the lineup, and that’s largely because of the uncharacteristic struggles of three lineup fulcrums – outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr., first baseman Matt Olson, and third baseman Austin Riley. 

In the case of Acuña, he barged to the NL MVP award last season thanks to his .337/.416/.596 slash line, 41 homers and 73 stolen bases. Thus far in 2024, however, Acuña’s power stroke has gone missing. He’s right now slugging just .362 with two homers in 32 games played. What’s perhaps more troubling is that Acuña’s struggles haven’t been undeserved. 

If you look at the advanced offensive metric Weighted On-Base Average, or wOBA, Acuña’s figure of .340 is hardly bad, but it’s also far from what we’ve come to expect from him. We can bake in quality of contact to arrive at a hitter’s expected wOBA, or xwOBA, to get an idea of whether his performance might be driven by luck, bad or good. In Acuña’s case, his current xwOBA is .340 – or the exact same as his actual wOBA. Maybe his struggles are the residue of the small sample, but his struggles are not illusory. Peer a bit more deeply, and…