A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy baseball categories doesn’t always tell the whole story of how a player is performing. Dalton Del Don attempts to identify misleading numbers that are worth a closer look.
Yes … The Numbers Do Lie.
Justin Verlander’s 3.38 ERA is a lie
Verlander’s solid ERA is masking a pitcher in decline. His 5.06 SIERA would rank second worst among 80-plus qualified starters, with only Michael Soroka’s higher. Verlander’s CSW (24.0%) ranks bottom five, next to Jose Quintana (5.44 ERA) and Patrick Corbin (5.59). His K-BB% (5.1) is bottom three among starters during May.
Verlander is 41 years old and had to delay the start of his season, thanks to shoulder troubles. He’s currently sporting the worst walk rate of his career, and his K% has declined four straight years. Verlander is a savvy pitcher who can remain effective with diminished velocity, but the trends are pointing down.
Verlander’s ERA is at risk of imploding if the veteran doesn’t start striking out more batters.
George Springer’s six RBI are a lie
Springer is off to the worst start of his career (69 wRC+), but he’s someone to buy in fantasy. His walk and K rates remain stable, and his BABIP (.229) is sure to improve. Speaking of regression, Springer is hitting .107 with runners in scoring position this season — the second lowest among 200 qualified hitters. He’s walked more than he’s struck out during those situations, making his BA even flukier. Springer has an MLB-low .122 batting average with runners on base (10:10 K:BB ratio), recording just three RBI over 60 plate appearances.
Moreover, Springer has faced one of the league’s most difficult schedules, as his opposing pitchers have combined for the fourth-best Pitching+. Rogers Centre has also been oddly tough for right-handed power in 2024, decreasing homers by 11% despite moving the fences in last season. Springer is unquestionably struggling at the plate and is 34 years old, but he’s due for much better fortune moving forward. He’s hitting leadoff, running more than ever and will soon remember how to hit when pitchers are out of the stretch.
Springer is a buy-low candidate.
Héctor Neris’ 3.00 ERA is a lie
Neris has been a popular fantasy pickup after taking over Chicago’s closer’s role, but his peripherals suggest trouble ahead. Neris has converted all six save opportunities and recorded two wins over the last three weeks, but his 3.00 ERA is accompanied by a 5.76 SIERA that…