We’re now almost two months into the 2024 MLB season and it’s becoming clear that, for whatever reason, we’re not seeing the same level of offense we did last year. After we saw a batting average bump last year, the league-wide batting average is down to its lowest mark since 1968 and the league’s home run per game average of 1.03 is the lowest rate since 2015. While we can speculate all we want on WHY that is, I thought it might be more fun to think about who might be responsible for some of those stats improving.
I went to Statcast and pulled all the data for pulled flyballs and line drives (FBLD) to see who should be set for a power surge in the coming months. I looked at the overall number of pulled FBLD, the exit velocity on those, the average launch angle, how many went for home runs, and then I also toggled for swing speed and swing length just to see for myself. I felt like these stats would give us the best idea of who is pulling the ball and hitting it hard but not seeing the ball go over the fence as much as it should with those data points.
I then eliminated players who were hitting the ball too soft to the pull side to leave the yard or players who weren’t lifting it enough to consistently get it out. That got rid of some guys like Oneil Cruz, who hit the ball really hard but not at a consistent enough launch angle to suggest he’s getting unlucky. So who are the hitters who are getting unlucky with pulled fly balls and should we expect a home run boost in the future?
Right off the bat, we see a few pretty clear examples of players off to slower-than-expected starts who we anticipate will turn it around. There’s simply no way Austin Riley and Rafael Devers should have one combined home run on their pulled flyballs and line drives (FBLD). Same for Julio Rodriguez and Ronald Acuña Jr. having just one each. Now, there are some things to note, like Riley and Devers both pulling less than 30% of their flyballs and line drives. That’s not common for them. Riley also has poor exit velocity on his pulled FBLD, and Julio Rodriguez has the fifth-longest swing on this leaderboard and an issue on inside pitches.
Riley’s overall flyball exit velocity is down to just 89 mph, which is well below his 91.1 mph career rate. He’s not popping the ball up more, but his launch angle is up about three degrees, so he may be just getting under the ball a bit more than normal. It also appears that pitchers have stopped throwing him inside, pitching him on the outside…