The Nationals announced Tuesday that they’ve placed right-hander Trevor Williams on the 15-day injured list due to a strained flexor muscle in his right forearm. Left-hander DJ Herz has been recalled from Triple-A Rochester and will make his MLB debut when he starts tonight’s game.
Williams is in the midst of a career year at age 32, having pitched 56 1/3 innings of 2.22 ERA ball out of the Washington rotation. He’s achieved those results in spite of a below-average 21% strikeout rate and benefited from both a .270 average on balls in play and minuscule 3.3% homer-to-flyball rate — all of which signal the potential for regression. Nonetheless, Williams’ performance thus far has been a major driving factor behind the Nationals exceeding preseason expectations and hanging around an NL Wild Card race that is largely populated by sub-.500 clubs at the moment.
The Nats didn’t provide a timetable for Williams’ return. That he’s dealing with a muscle strain as opposed to a damaged flexor tendon is perhaps a silver lining, but that doesn’t preclude a notable absence in and of itself. Teammate Josiah Gray is dealing with the same injury and has been on the shelf for nearly two months at this point. All injuries cases are different, and we don’t know how the placement and severity of Williams’ strain compares to that of Gray, but Gray’s injury is evidence that Williams is hardly assured a swift return to the mound.
The timing of the injury is particularly poor for both the team and Williams himself. If Washington were to hang around and make a Wild Card push, one would presume a healthy Williams would play a notable role. Even if he saw his pristine ERA regress toward the vicinity of his 3.97 SIERA, he’d still be a useful veteran presence on the staff. And if the Nats were to fall well out of the postseason picture, it’s easy to envision Williams becoming a sought-after trade chip. His injury throws a wrench into both scenarios.
On a personal level, it’s also poorly timed for the pitcher himself. Wiilliams is playing out the second season of a two-year, $13MM contract and is slated to reach free agency at season’s end. He landed that $13MM guarantee in the 2022-23 offseason on the heels of a year spent primarily in a swingman role with the Mets. Had Williams reached the market a second time on the heels of a two-year run as a starter — the second season being a career-best performance — he’d have been in line for a more…
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