Should Red Sox buy at trade deadline? Wild card history gives easy answer originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
The Boston Red Sox might not look like a World Series contender right now. But neither did the Arizona Diamondbacks at this juncture of the 2023 MLB season.
The D-Backs were 54-47, tied for second place in the National League West, on July 24 of last season. They decided not to sell at the trade deadline and instead made moves to improve the team. Arizona’s most notable additions were closer Paul Sewald, outfielder/designated hitter Tommy Pham, and setup men Ryan Thompson and Andrew Saalfrank. None of these players was seen as a “major splash,” but their arrivals addressed key weaknesses on the roster.
The Diamondbacks ultimately finished as the No. 3 wild card team in the NL and advanced all the way to the World Series, where they lost to the Texas Rangers in five games. Arizona and Texas were both wild card teams. It was the third time that both World Series participants were not division winners.
It also was another example of why just getting to the postseason is important. Once you’re in, anything can happen. It sounds cliche, and it is. But with the 2024 trade deadline just a week away, the Red Sox absolutely should consider the success of recent wild card teams when determining whether to make meaningful additions to their roster.
The Red Sox have an almost identical record to the 2023 D-Backs on this date. They enter Wednesday with a 54-46 record and sit one game behind the Kansas City Royals for the third and final AL wild card berth. They’re also one game behind the Minnesota Twins for the second wild card spot.
History suggests that finishing as a wild card team can lead to some pretty exciting playoff runs.
Consider these stats/trends:
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Since 2000, seven teams have won the World Series as a wild card team, including the 2004 Red Sox.
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Since 2000, AL wild card teams have won 20 postseason series (ALDS, ALCS and World Series).
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Since 2000, 12 AL wild card teams have reached at least the ALCS.
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At least one wild card team reached the World Series from 2002 through 2007.
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Three World Series (2002, 2014 and 2023) featured two wild card teams.
The Red Sox have been a wild card playoff team eight times, tied with the New York Yankees for the most since the original wild card format was introduced in 1995. Boston has won nine postseason series as a wild card team, with its most recent victory coming in the 2021 ALDS versus the Tampa Bay Rays.
Half of all…