The story below is a collaboration between writers from MLB.com and Yahoo Sports, who are joining forces this season to cover topics around baseball.
The season’s stretch run tends to have a surprise or two up its sleeve.
On this date in 2023, the D-backs’ odds of making the playoffs, per FanGraphs projections, were at 17.4%. They wound up in the World Series. On the same date in 2021, the sub-.500 Cardinals were at a measly 1.4% before they made a run to a wild-card spot. In other words, as long as there’s a chance, there’s a chance.
Which team might pull off that unexpected surge into October in 2024? As of Friday, FanGraphs postseason odds had 15 contenders with relatively robust odds — nearly 40% or better. Eight other clubs were below 1% (six of them actually at 0%). That leaves seven long-shot contenders, each of whom fell between 3% and 20%. (These odds factor in not only the standings but also teams’ true talent level and remaining strength of schedule.)
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To help determine which club could overcome those numbers to claim a playoff spot, we asked seven writers, from Yahoo Sports and MLB.com, to each make the case for one of them.
Teams are listed below in order of their postseason odds entering Friday’s games.
Postseason odds as of Friday: 15.1%
How they could do it: Peak at the right time
Although they haven’t been above .500 since late May, when their winning percentage peaked at 29-27, the Giants have hung around the bottom portion of the muddled NL wild-card mess and seem to be playing their best baseball just in time to make a push down the stretch. They weren’t exactly big buyers at the trade deadline — in fact, they dealt away one of their best hitters in Jorge Soler — but their decision to hold onto Blake Snell despite whispers about his potential availability immediately paid off, with Snell throwing a no-hitter in his first start post-deadline. It took a while, but Snell is finally starting to look like what San Francisco paid for as the grand finale of its highly active winter of spending in free agency.
And while Soler is gone and Jung-Hoo Lee is out for the year due to a shoulder injury, Matt Chapman is another of San Francisco’s big offseason additions who has looked spectacular lately, ranking as one of baseball’s best hitters since the All-Star break. Add the return of veteran lefty Robbie Ray to the rotation and the stunning power breakout of shortstop Tyler…