MLB’s regular season is a marathon. Its postseason tournament is a sprint.
To emerge from the six-month slog, a team typically needs at least six capable starting pitchers. Over 162 games, depth is paramount. Injuries inevitably wither away the best laid rotation plans of contenders.
October is a different story. With starters journeying shallower into games than ever before, a club can navigate the playoffs with only three or four starting pitchers. A year ago, the Arizona Diamondbacks reached the World Series with a quartet featuring two experienced starters (Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly), a rookie (Brandon Pfaadt) and a bullpen day.
As the saying goes: You are only as good as that day’s starting pitcher. So with the 2024 postseason around the corner, let’s handicap the discussion and rank all the playoff rotations from least to most formidable.
Note: All teams included are currently within two games of a playoff spot, and this exercise involves only projected starting rotations. Of course, the strength of a given bullpen is similarly important to a team’s success. For instance, the Cleveland Guardians, who sit last on this ranking, have far and away the best relief corps in MLB.
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(1) Tanner Bibee (2) Matt Boyd (3) Gavin Williams (4) Alex Cobb (5) Ben Lively
Starting pitching has, over the past decade, been a strength for Cleveland. But injuries to the projected top three of Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie and Logan Allen have left this rotation undermanned all season. Manager Stephen Vogt’s team has thrived anyway, thanks in large part to a phenomenal defense and a magnificent bullpen.
But come October, this Guardians staff will be put to the test. Bibee, still just 25 years old, is more solid than dominant. Boyd and Cobb were emergency in-season additions who have performed admirably. Williams can go from ace to catastrophe within a start. The truncated October schedule means Cleveland can deploy its bullpen uber-aggressively, but that matters only if these arms can keep games close.
(1) Pablo López (2) Bailey Ober (3) Simeon Woods Richardson (4) David Festa (5) Zebby Matthews
It has been a weird season for López, who was roughed up for much of April and May. But the Minnesota ace has put the pieces back together with a 2.35 ERA over his past 15 starts. Ober has taken a nice step forward this year but is…