Guardians, Triston McKenzie Avoid Arbitration

The Guardians and right-hander Triston McKenzie have agreed to a deal to avoid arbitration, reports Robert Murray of FanSided on X. The Octagon client will make a salary of $1.95MM in 2025.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected McKenzie for a salary of $2.4MM next year, but he’ll actually come up shy of that number. That’s usually the case for deals agreed to at this part of the calendar.

Friday evening is the deadline for clubs to decide whether or not to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players. The two sides will still have plenty of time to negotiate the figures but clubs sometimes offer “take it or leave it” style deals ahead of the deadline for players that are borderline cases to be tendered in the first place. Such “pre-tender” deals often come in below projections, as the club is essentially telling the player to take a lower salary or else be non-tendered and sent into free agency.

It’s a remarkable position for McKenzie to be in, considering how things looked just two years ago. By the end of the 2022 season, he had thrown 344 2/3 innings with a 3.68 earned run average. He had struck out 27% of batters faced while giving out walks just 8.1% of the time. With the Guardians having a tremendous reputation for finding and developing starting pitching, it seemed as though they had found yet another rotation building block.

But McKenzie has had a rough time since then. He was injured for much of 2023, first due to a right teres major strain. He came off the IL and made a pair of starts but went right back on the shelf, that time due to a sprain in the ulnar collateral ligament of his throwing elbow. He opted for non-surgical rehab and was able to come back for two more starts late in the year.

Any hopes for a bounceback in 2024 were quickly dashed. His velocity was down and he clearly wasn’t in a good space mentally. While he wasn’t in pain, he did say in mid-April that the possibility of re-injuring himself was weighing on his mind. He was optioned to the minors in June after having made 16 starts with a 5.11 ERA. His 21.8% strikeout rate and 14.4% walk rate were both far worse than his previous work. He posted a 5.23 ERA at the Triple-A the rest of the way with roughly similar strikeout and walk rates of 23.5% and 13.9% respectively.

Despite the strong form he showed earlier in his career, the injury-wrecked season followed by a dismal performance in 2024 made McKenzie a non-tender candidate, but the two sides will…