Dominance in defeat.
That’s how Corbin Burnes, the consensus top free-agent pitcher this winter, ended his 2024 season.
In Game 1 of the wild-card series against the visiting Kansas City Royals, the burly right-hander was sensational, surrendering just one run over eight sparkling frames. It turned out to be the longest start of the entire postseason. Yet Burnes’ Orioles couldn’t score, not even once, and so he left Camden Yards that evening with a hard-luck loss, his teammates congratulating him and apologizing to him at the same time.
Despite the unsatisfying outcome, Burnes’ year as an Oriole was a success. Acquired from Milwaukee in February for a pair of prospects, he generally performed like the ace Baltimore expected him to be. And while the Orioles are reportedly interested in a reunion, they’ll face serious competition to employ Burnes’ services in 2025, as the 2021 NL Cy Young is set to command a contract in the $200 million range.
But is Burnes worth that type of investment? What are the reasons for concern? Can his next team count on him as a true No. 1 starter? Or is a decline around the corner?
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A look back at Burnes’ 2024
Burnes was very good for the first four months of the season, pitching to a 2.47 ERA over 22 starts despite less encouraging peripheral statistics. Most notably, his strikeout rate skidded to a career low. Eventually, that caught up to him. In August, Burnes got blasted, allowing 20 earned runs in 20 2/3 innings across his first four starts of the month.
But in his Aug. 28 outing, Burnes made a massive adjustment. He altered the release point of his trademark cutter, an offering that he throws nearly 50% of the time. The pitch had gained a bit of velocity, causing it to have more carry and less horizontal movement, which made it much less unique and much more hittable. The change brought immediate results.
In September, Burnes scuttled the short-breaking slider he’d been utilizing all year in favor of a longer sweeper — to great effect. Armed with a revitalized cutter and a new breaking ball, Burnes’ strikeout rate soared from 18.5% in August to 27.7% in September and October. And while he punched out only three batters in that magnificent wild-card start, Burnes was in total control, opting to pitch to contact in order to work deeper into the game.
What to make of Burnes’ strikeout rate?
Late-season uptick aside, Burnes strikeout rate has gradually…