As the baseball industry and several massive fan bases eagerly wait to find out which team will sign superstar outfielder Juan Soto, there has already been significant movement in another part of the free-agent market: starting pitching. This dynamic was also in play a year ago, when Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Luis Severino all signed before December’s winter meetings, but last winter saw two of the market’s top starters, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, have their free agencies stretch all the way to March. We’re a long way from knowing which, if any, of this year’s top free-agent arms will remain unsigned as spring training camps open, but the early movement suggests a steady stream of rotation additions could be on deck in the coming weeks.
Excluding Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki — whose market is entirely different due to international amateur bonus rules — Yahoo Sports’ Top 50 free agent list featured 19 starting pitchers. Five of them — Blake Snell (No. 6), Yusei Kikuchi (No. 17), Nick Martinez (No. 19), Matthew Boyd (No. 35) and Frankie Montas (No. 50) — have already inked new deals. In addition, right-hander Michael Wacha, who was set to become a free agent and would’ve ranked in the middle portion of our list, agreed to a three-year, $51 million extension with Kansas City.
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What have we learned in free agency so far?
So what can we glean from this initial batch of starting pitching additions? The early days of the offseason are ripe with speculation, but now we have some data points to work with. There are two primary things to note with these first few contracts: 1) the size and length of the deals relative to industry projections and expectations, and 2) which teams have already jumped at the chance to improve their pitching staffs and, by extension, which teams in need of rotation help still have shopping to do.
Let’s begin with the money. The winter started with Wacha’s extension to stay with the Royals and the 34-year-old Martinez accepting the one-year, $21.05 million qualifying offer from Cincinnati. Wacha’s deal made perfect sense, considering his reported comfort with the club and the $17 million average annual value was commensurate with that of a mid-rotation starter with a high floor. Perhaps Martinez could’ve commanded a larger total guarantee on a multi-year pact, but he opted to stay in Cincinnati, where he just had a fantastic year as a…