First base used to be one of the fun zones of fantasy baseball, a wonderland. Things are not trending in the right direction.
Paul Goldschmidt, Freddie Freeman and José Abreu are all first basemen with MVPs this decade, but 2024 was not kind to any of them. Goldy and Freeman are coming off disappointing years, and Abreu’s career is probably over. It’s no fun when stars hit the decline seasons.
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It’s not just a problem with the veterans. Younger targets like Spencer Steer and Triston Casas are coming off middling seasons. Christian Encarnacion-Strand was hurt most of 2024. Spencer Torkelson forgot how to play baseball and was demoted to Triple-A, deservedly.
Maybe this is the best way to frame last year’s disappointing haul of the top 26 first basemen drafted in Yahoo leagues last year — 18 of them have cheaper ADPs this season. In other words, they’re coming off disappointing seasons — so the draft price has adjusted.
To be fair, first base isn’t the only infield position of concern. Third base appears a little deeper, but it’s a narrow difference. I know the easiest way to make the fantasy gods laugh is to make a plan, but here’s a blueprint for how I’ll attack first base this year.
Proactive Targets
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays (Yahoo ADP: 13.4)
His takeoff hasn’t been linear through six seasons, but let’s respect that Kid Guerrero just had the second-best year of his career, with a juicy 165 OPS+ and positive impact in four categories. He’s stepping into his age-26 season, which often coincides with peak performance. So long as you accept the 48 home runs from 2021 as an unrepeatable outlier, Guerrero feels like an easy player to project, a high-floor candidate with plenty of plausible upside. He’s also been notably durable for five years, missing just 12 games over that period.
Vinnie Pasquantino, Royals (Yahoo ADP: 116.8)
Pasquantino’s 2024 rates look similar to the previous year, though he did nudge his average and slugging percentage forward. He’s always had plus contact rates and, had he not gotten injured in September, he would have sailed past 100 RBI. He’ll probably be positive in three of the five categories, and the Royals offense is on the upswing. Pasquantino looks like a boring value pick at his current draft price.
Jake Burger, Rangers (Yahoo ADP: 123.8)
Burger is probably a better fantasy player than a real-life guy, as last year’s 103 OPS+ is slightly above the…