The most high-profile “Will they/won’t they” since Jim and Pam finally came to an end on Wednesday night when the New York Mets re-signed first baseman Pete Alonso to a two-year, $54 million contract. The deal comes with a $10 million signing bonus and an opt-out after the first season, making it essentially a one-year, $30 million deal.
Pete Alonso’s deal with the New York Mets, which is pending physical, is for two years and includes an opt-out after the first season. He’ll make $30 million this year.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) February 6, 2025
So what does this mean for the Mets, both in the long and short term, and what should we expect from Pete Alonso in this new-look Mets lineup?
How does this impact Pete Alonso’s fantasy value?
Not much if we’re being honest. Pete is returning to his old team and also has the type of raw power where he was going to hit home runs no matter where he signed. A more hitter-friendly park may have helped with his batting average though as Alonso has hit .217/.318/.504/ in 2023 and .240/.329/.459 in 2024.
I believe most of that batting average regression has to do with a clear change in approach Alonso made since he hit .271/.318/.504 in 2022 with 40 home runs. It seems that Alonso wanted to tap into even more power, as his fly ball rate jumped 4% in 2023 and his overall swing rate dropped over 6%. He was more patient, taking more called strikes but doing more damage when he did make contact with a leap in barrel rate and HR/FB rate. The issue is that he also saw his strikeout rate rise and his Ideal Contact Rate fall as some of those added fly balls were not well-struck.
That new approach carried into 2024, where Alonso had a 43% overall swing rate, which is well below the league average and 7% below his 2022 mark. He’s swinging and missing less, and his zone contact rates remain above average, but he also had a 19.2% called strike rate in 2024, which is well above league average. Taking more strikes has also led to more advantageous counts for pitchers and, according to Statcast’s Run Value, even though Alonso does damage on four-seam fastballs, his production against secondary pitches has plummeted.
|
2022 Run Value |
2023 Run Value |
2024 Run Value |
|
|
Slider |
4 |
3 |
-9 |
|
Curve |
9 |
1 |
-2 |
|
Changeup |
10 |
0 |
3 |
That corresponds with his increasing struggles in the shadow area of the strike zone, which Statcast categorizes as the corners of the strike zone. In 2022, Alonso put up a -5 Run Vale in the shadow area, which doesn’t seem great but ranked 42nd in…