Reaching free agency has always been seen as a milestone in the life of a big leaguer. After six or seven years with an organization, it’s a player’s first opportunity to be wined and dined, to talk to other teams, to make a decision on the next chapter of his career and, ultimately, to cash in with a big payday after all the years it took to get there. But the process of MLB free agency has evolved significantly in the recent past, as the economics of the game have drastically shifted, with both franchise valuations and the value of player contracts skyrocketing.
In the past two offseasons, we’ve seen the two largest contracts in the history of professional sports handed out. First, Shohei Ohtani signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers for $700 million last winter. Then Juan Soto upped the ante, signing with the New York Mets for $765 million this offseason on a deal that could end up being worth $815 million with escalators and opt-ins.
But that’s not because teams are spending more freely in free agency. Rather, as the finances of the game have changed, the way players are evaluated when it comes to free agency has also changed. And with the steady increase in player salaries, teams have actually become more cautious about where they’re investing their money long-term.
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Fifteen or so years ago, age wasn’t considered that big of a hindrance in a team’s pursuit of a player. It wasn’t uncommon for teams to give players in their 30s deals at the top of the market. Two of the biggest examples of this are Albert Pujols’ $254 million deal with the Angels entering his age-32 season and Miguel Cabrera’s eight-year, $292 million extension with the Tigers entering his age-31 season. Those are two of the best to ever play the game, and both will end up in the Hall of Fame, but their production after those contracts were signed left a lot to be desired.
And so, as free-agent contracts became more expensive and aging players experienced steep declines, the industry’s pendulum swung the other way. Baseball became a young man’s game, with many teams’ focus and resources shifting toward the youngest players. But as a consequence of teams attempting to be more savvy when it comes to player evaluation and free agency, baseball now faces a different problem. Today, free agents who are 28, 29 and 30 years old are struggling to land market-value deals.
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