The draft randomizer handed me the No. 1 pick in the LABR mixed league draft Tuesday night, and I didn’t have any hesitation. But with the entire baseball universe available to me — including reigning MVPs Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge — I went in what some might consider an unconventional direction. I selected Bobby Witt Jr.
This isn’t meant to be a hot-take thing or a look-at-me pick. And I don’t fault anyone who would pick Ohtani or Judge in this spot (note, all of my Yahoo colleagues currently rank Ohtani first). It’s a matter of trying to take Wayne Gretzky’s advice — I’m not skating to where the puck has been, I’m skating to where the puck is headed.
The case against taking Ohtani No. 1 in fantasy drafts
A chunk of the pick-Witt exercise invariably turns into a mild talking down of Ohtani — this piece is as much about why I’m not taking Ohtani as it is why I am taking Witt. I take no joy in nitpicking Ohtani. He’s the unicorn of baseball, a player no living person has a comparison for. Ohtani was easily the most valuable player in fantasy last season, courtesy of that absurd .310-134-54-130-59 line.
Let’s focus on that final column for Ohtani, the 59 steals. It’s incongruent with the rest of his career. Starting in 2018, here are the yearly steal counts for Showtime: 10-12-7*-26-11-20 (the seven steals came in the pandemic season). And then last year, we saw the 59-bag explosion.
I suspect Ohtani upped his steal interest last year because registering a 50-50 season became a tangible goal. Through 101 games, he was sitting on 24 swipes, a solid total, clearly headed for a new career high. And then in his final 58 games, he stole a ridiculous 35 bags — on 35 attempts, which is equally ridiculous. There was a destination in mind, a new plateau to shoot for.
Alas, stealing bases is a physical drain on the body. And even while it’s a plus play for a high-percentage thief like Ohtani, it’s not always the practical thing to do, long term. While Ohtani was running wild, most of his veteran teammates were picking their spots to run. Mookie Betts settled for a modest 16 steals, on 18 attempts. Freddie Freeman moved down to nine bags, after 23 steals the previous year. It’s not that players like this can’t steal bases. It’s that they don’t think it’s always worth the physical wear and tear.
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