The Rotoworld Baseball staff offered their early sleeper picks for hitters and pitchers earlier this month, but now it’s time to look at the other end of the spectrum with our picks for “busts.”
Now, a quick word about “busts.” What does it mean, exactly? Ultimately, it’s a flashy word for a player who is deemed unlikely to live up to last year’s performance and/or their ADP (average draft position) for this year. Call them “busts” if you’d like, but “overvalued” works just fine as well. Either way, don’t say we didn’t warn you.
After unveiling our “busts” among hitters earlier this week, you’ll find our picks among starting pitchers below.
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2025 FANTASY BASEBALL BUST STARTING PITCHERS
Luis Castillo RHP, Mariners
Because the Mariners decided against trading him, Castillo is my No. 47 SP this season. In pretty much any stadium other than T-Mobile, I doubt he’d crack my top 70. That ballpark is covering up a pretty steep decline from the former Reds ace. Castillo’s fastball velocity dropped 1.5 mph from 2022 to 2024, and he’s now a slight flyball pitcher after spending years as one of the league’s top groundball inducers. His 24.3% strikeout rate last season was still quite good, but that was largely ex-Safeco’s doing. Mariners pitchers had a 27% strikeout rate at home and a 22% strikeout rate on the road last season. Castillo’s was 27% at home and 20% on the road. Pitching in Seattle, he had a 3.15 ERA and a 5.9 K:BB. Elsewhere, he had a 4.25 ERA and a 2.3 K:BB. There’s always the chance that Castillo will regain some arm strength and return to All-Star form at age 32. It just seems like a really bad idea to bet on it when he’s being drafted as a top-25 SP. – Matthew Pouliot
Garrett Crochet LHP, Red Sox
Crochet’s talent is obvious, and there’s loads of reasons to be excited about his chances of success in 2025 and beyond. There’s also some reasons to believe that he’s not worthy of being one of the first pitchers off the board this winter. In his 12 starts after the All-Star break, Crochet had an ERA of 5.19, and while that sample is only 38 2/3 innings, that’s part of the concern as well as he was (justifiably) coddled during the final few months of the season. Yes, his ability to miss bats competes with any…