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There is no debate that Statcast has forever changed how we view Major League Baseball. The treasure trove of information provided by Statcast data has given fans and analysts a better understanding of the true skills of each player, and at this point, there is no going back. The Expected Stats portion of Statcast data can be especially useful for fantasy baseball managers.
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To be clear, Expected Stats are not designed to be predictive.
This means that a pitcher who has produced a 3.50 expected ERA is not necessarily predicted to post a 3.50 ERA from this point forward. However, it does mean that in a world with no luck and a completely level playing field, the player would have logged a 3.50 ERA to this point.
Wise fantasy managers can use Expected Stats to assess the players who have been especially lucky or unlucky over a certain time period. And when looking back at data from the previous season, Expected Stats can offer some clues as to which players may have been judged too harshly or favorably by the fantasy community. Here are some Expected Stats from 2024 that are worth knowing before starting your 2025 draft.
Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates (Yahoo ADP: 13.3)
Trying to decide between Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal in the second round of your draft? The Statcast data suggests that Skenes should be your guy. The margins are narrow, but Skenes outperformed Skubal last season in xBA, xSLG, xwOBA and xERA. There are counterarguments for Skubal, especially if one believes that he will throw more innings. But the expected stats say that Yahoo drafters correctly have Skenes ahead of Skubal (ADP 16.0).
Blake Snell, Los Angeles Dodgers (Yahoo ADP: 40.6)
Need another reason to believe in Snell this year? Last season, the left-hander posted the lowest xERA (2.57 ERA) of anyone who faced at least 400 batters not named Paul Skenes. And his .178 xBA was the lowest mark of any starting pitcher. Snell moves from a good situation to a great one, with massive win potential as the rotation anchor on baseball’s best team.
Mason Miller, Athletics (Yahoo ADP: 60.3)
Everyone knows that Miller is good, but his 1.77 xERA was the lowest of any pitcher who faced at least 200 batters. He also produced the lowest xwOBA (.206) and the second-best xBA (.150). Miller is as skilled as any closer in baseball, and he could benefit from the A’s making modest…