While their midwest counterparts in the American League enjoyed a collective breakout of sorts, 2024 wasn’t exactly a banner year for the NL Central. Besides the champion Brewers, the four other teams found themselves stuck in the mud for much of the summer due to injuries and/or dismal underperformance. None of these teams was ever good enough to be especially threatening, and none was bad enough to be completely out of the mix. Among MLB’s six divisions, the NL Central featured both the second-place team with the fewest wins (Cubs/Cardinals at 83) and the last-place team with the most wins (Pirates at 76).
After a season defined by frustrating mediocrity, this division still feels fairly up for grabs. Can Milwaukee keep proving the doubters wrong? Will the Cubs finally break through? Is this the year the Pirates escape last place? How big of an impact will new Reds skipper Terry Francona make? And what exactly are the Cardinals doing? Let’s get into it.
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Milwaukee Brewers
Projected record (per FanGraphs, as of March 12): 81-81, 33.7% odds to make the playoffs, 22.1% odds to win the division
What happened last year? After Craig Counsell bolted for Chicago and Corbin Burnes was traded right before spring training, the Brewers were written off by many entering 2024. Yet once again, their organizational excellence shined through as Milwaukee took advantage of the mediocrity surrounding it in the division and surged to an NL Central crown in Pat Murphy’s first year at the helm. A heartbreaking exit in the wild-card series preceded a winter that saw yet another wave of familiar faces depart, as shortstop Willy Adames left in free agency and closer Devin Williams was traded to the Yankees.
Best-case scenario: The meteoric ascent of 21-year-old Jackson Chourio continues, giving the Brewers another elite position player alongside star catcher William Contreras. The bullpen doesn’t miss a beat without Williams, and new lefties Nestor Cortes Jr. and Jose Quintana fortify a rotation that clearly needed reinforcements. Rhys Hoskins rediscovers his Philadelphia form and slugs a career-high 35 home runs, which helps to make up for Adames’ absence in the lineup. Fan favorites Christian Yelich and Brandon Woodruff return from their respective surgeries and perform at or near pre-injury levels, pushing Milwaukee to another 90-plus-win…