The following players are overvalued compared to ADP — not necessarily “busts” as they can still retain value. Go here for sleepers.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Ketel Marte, 2B
Marte now carries a top-30 ADP after coming off a career best season, so proceed with caution. He hasn’t reached double-digit stolen bases since 2019 (when he had 10), and he’s missed an average of 34 games over the last four seasons. Marte was legitimately awesome in 2024, posting a 151 wRC+ that ranked top 10 in baseball. But he owns a career 118 wRC+, and OOPSY projects Marte to come back down to 25 home runs in 2025 (over an optimistic 147 games played).
Marte is due for regression at the plate, and he doesn’t run much. His Yahoo ADP was outside 100 in 2024, and he’ll now be 31 years old. Fade Marte’s ADP.
Athletics: Luis Severino, SP
The A’s aren’t loaded with players with high ADPs, and the change in venues will be favorable for their hitters. Mason Miller’s new ADP is risky given his injury history, but he also might be the most exciting pitcher in all of baseball right now (and he easily led all relievers in K-BB% last season). Enter Severino, who’s the Athletics’ new ace and highest drafted SP. He posted a 2.96 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP at home last season but a 5.00 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP when not in the extremely pitcher-friendly Citi Field.
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Severino now will be pitching in a smaller park and in warmer weather with the move to Sacramento (where the A’s will share parks with the Giants’ Triple-A affiliates). There are better late-round fliers for those searching for SP help in deeper leagues.
Atlanta Braves: Ronald Acuña Jr., OF
Acuña is set to miss the first 4-6 weeks of the season while recovering from his second ACL surgery. He’s reportedly looked great at the plate during Atlanta’s camp, but fantasy managers should be concerned about Acuña openly stating he plans on “taking it easy” on the base paths after returning. Atlanta is trying to avoid Acuña having to deal with lingering discomfort that followed him throughout the 2022 season following his first ACL procedure, when he posted a 115 wRC+. Acuña was also quietly pedestrian over 50 games at the plate (105 wRC+) before suffering his knee injury last season.
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Most projection systems remain extremely bullish, calling for 35+ steals over 120ish games. Other…