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AL East season preview: What’s ahead for the Yankees? Can the Red Sox win the division? Will the Orioles break through?

AL East season preview: What's ahead for the Yankees? Can the Red Sox win the division? Will the Orioles break through?

The MLB offseason is nearly over. Meaningful baseball games return to our lives beginning March 18, with the Cubs and Dodgers facing off in Tokyo.

But first, let’s continue our division-by-division season previews. It’s time to turn our attention to the teams in the American League. We begin with the AL East.

More division previews: National League East | National League Central | National League West

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Projected record (per FanGraphs, as of March 17): 86-76, 63.0% odds to make the playoffs, 31.1% odds to win the division

What happened last year? Juan Soto, baseball mercenary, delivered.

Behind Soto’s patience, Aaron Judge’s power and a sturdy pitching staff, the Yanks won 94 ballgames, the division crown and the AL pennant. And then … Nestor Cortes Jr. threw Freddie Freeman a meatball, Aaron Judge dropped a pop-up, Gerrit Cole forgot to cover first base, and the Yankees spent winter getting clowned on by the victorious Dodgers. Soto’s crosstown flight and Gerrit Cole’s season-ending Tommy John surgery have only intensified the consternation in YankeeLand as the game’s most notorious franchise continues its quest for title No. 28.

Best-case scenario: New York’s core competency of run prevention — they own the fourth-lowest ERA in MLB since the start of 2022 — is enough to overcome a year without Cole. Big-money free-agent addition Max Fried pitches like the ace he was paid to be. So does Carlos Rodón, who has his first All-Star-level season in pinstripes. Anthony Volpe makes The Leap™ in his age-24 season, going from glove-first shortstop to all-around superstar. Jasson Dominguez goes 30/30 and wins AL Rookie of the Year. Judge cranks out another 60 homers. The Yankees — all rocking playoff beards — storm through October and win the first World Series of the Judge Era. Owner Hal Steinbrenner looks like ZZ Top when he accepts the trophy.

Worst-case scenario: It turns out that replacing Juan Soto and Gerrit Cole is extremely difficult. Judge desperately misses Soto’s presence in the lineup, as recent additions such as Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt and Jazz Chisholm fail to step up. Giancarlo Stanton, sidelined by two ailing elbows, doesn’t play a single game. The gaping hole at third base proves to be an anchor. Dominguez’s bat doesn’t blossom, and he remains a blindfolded toddler in left…

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