Fantasy baseball analyst Dalton Del Don takes the mound to identify which pitchers managers should avoid at their lofty draft prices this season. Click here for even more fades.
Athletics: Luis Severino, SP
The A’s aren’t loaded with players with high ADPs, and the change in venues will be favorable for their hitters. Mason Miller’s new ADP is risky given his injury history, but he also might be the most exciting pitcher in all of baseball right now (and he easily led all relievers in K-BB% last season). Enter Severino, who’s the Athletics’ new ace and highest-drafted SP. He posted a 2.96 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP at home last season but a 5.00 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP when not in the extremely pitcher-friendly Citi Field.
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Severino now will be pitching in a smaller park and in warmer weather with the move to Sacramento (where the A’s will share parks with the Giants’ Triple-A affiliates). There are better late-round fliers for those searching for SP help in deeper leagues.
Baltimore Orioles: Zach Eflin, SP
Eflin has benefitted greatly from pitching at Tropicana Field over the last two years, including posting a 1.94 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP there last season. He recorded a 4.33 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP outside of pitcher-friendly Tampa Bay. Tropicana Field has increased strikeouts by 8% over the last three seasons, while Oriole Park has decreased Ks by 8% over that span. Baltimore is also moving in its left-field fences in 2025, so Eflin will have a full season in a tougher environment.
Gunnar Henderson also carries some risk given his high ADP (9.3), modest SB projections, second-half drop in production and entering the season with an intercostal injury.
Boston Red Sox: Liam Hendriks, RP
Hendriks has struggled this spring while competing to be Boston’s closer. Aroldis Chapman has had control issues, but he’s striking batters out and was a top-10 reliever after the All-Star break last season. Justin Slaten and Garrett Whitlock are also capable options of securing the Red Sox’s closer’s role. Hendriks’ last productive season was back in 2022, and his previous velocity looks unlikely to return.
Cincinnati Reds: Alexis Díaz, RP
Díaz’s 4.48 SIERA ranked 156th out of 169 qualified relievers last season. He pitches in one of baseball’s most extreme hitter’s parks in Cincinnati, where Díaz recorded a 4.61 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP last year. Díaz’s K% dropped from 31% over 2022-23 down to…