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Undervalued hitters for 2025 fantasy baseball: Time to buy Austin Wells or Pavin Smith?

MLB: Kansas City Royals-Media Day

We’re entering the final weekend of fantasy baseball drafts, which means there is still time to identify some draft values. However, it also means that the initial waiver wire runs are going to happen in many leagues and there could still be hitters out there who will provide you value for the 2025 season.

In order to find those hitters, I created a custom leaderboard on FanGraphs of some of my favorite process-oriented stats: barrel rate, max exit velocity, swinging strike rate, overall contact rate, and O-Swing% (or chase rate). To me, these are the most important stats when looking at a hitter’s process because we can see who is forcing pitchers to throw them pitches in the strike zone, who is doing a good job of making contact on those pitches, and who is making authoritative contact when they do swing. All that should line up to produce hitters who are more likely to give you solid results.

After creating the leaderboard, I took the 2024 league average marks in all the categories and removed any hitter who wasn’t better than the league average in each one. Those marks were 7.6% barrel rate, 28.6% chase rate, 11.1% SwStr%, and a 76.8% contact rate. I then removed hitters who are consistently drafted inside the top 200 picks in fantasy baseball drafts. That left us with a list of 20 hitters who were average to above in my favorite hitter stats, regardless of their surface-level results

So let’s see which ones I’m really targeting in my drafts or early waiver wire runs.

MLB: Kansas City Royals-Media Day

MLB: Kansas City Royals-Media Day

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Hitter Draft Values For 2025 Fantasy Baseball

Name

Team

PA

O-Swing%

Barrel%

maxEV

SwStr%

Contact%

Lars Nootbaar

STL

405

16.9

9/9

113.459

5.9

83.9

Jonathan Aranda

TBR

143

26.2

16.5

110.382

8.5

81.2

Pavin Smith

ARI

158

20

14.7

112.09

7.9

79.3

Rowdy Tellez

SEA

421

28.4

8

115.477

8.9

79

Ty France

MIN

535

27.9

7.3

111.065

10.9

78.6

Iván Herrera

STL

259

25.8

8.9

112.377

9.4

78.6

Dylan Moore

SEA

441

17.5

8.8

109.133

9.3

78.1

LaMonte Wade Jr.

SFG

401

19.7

9.4

110.81

8.9

78

Dominic Smith

NYY

307

27.5

10.6

109.117

10.2

77.4

Ben Rice

NYY

178

19.9

15.6

110.773

10.5

77.2

Josh Bell

WAS

603

28.1

7.5

111.222

11.3

76.7

JJ Bleday

OAK

642

27.2

8.3

113.256

10.6

76.4

Jack Suwinski

PIT

277

22.7

8.8

111.527

11.1

76

Joey Bart

PIT

282

25.9

9.4

111.521

10.5

75.7

Austin Wells

NYY

414

26.4

9.1

111.173

12

75.4

Trevor Larnach

MIN

400

26.4

10.1

113.19

11.5

74.1

Jorge Polanco

SEA

469

25.5

8.9

110.737

11.8

73.6

Bo Naylor

CLE

389

26.4

7.6

109.028

12.4

73.6

Kyle Manzardo

CLE

156

29.3

9.5

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