The Pirates are expected to make much of their roster available on the trade market this summer after stumbling to a 26-40 start this season that has left them more or less buried in the NL playoff picture. According to a report from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale this morning, at least one player is already drawing interest on the trade market: infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa. It should be noted that Nightengale does not connect the infielder to any specific clubs, and there’s no indication that a deal is anywhere near close at this time.
It’s not exactly a shocking revelation. After all, Kiner-Falefa is enjoying quite a strong season in Pittsburgh; in 53 games this year, he’s slashed an impressive .304/.351/.381 (106 wRC+) while serving primarily as the Pirates’ shortstop. He’s not rated out especially well at the position this year, but he’s typically been a strong defender at both second and third base throughout his career and even won a Gold Glove award at the hot corner. Given Kiner-Falefa’s strong reputation as a defender, he’d be a very impactful addition for a team in need of infield help if he can maintain this above average offense going forward.
That being said, there’s clear red flags in Kiner-Falefa’s profile that suggest he’s likely to regress in the future. Kiner-Falefa’s .306 career BABIP is solid, but even it doesn’t compare to the .360 figure he’s put up this year. That’s all but guaranteed to come down at some point, and he’s actually hitting for less power than last season with plate discipline numbers that aren’t markedly different. Kiner-Falefa’s .298 xwOBA is almost a perfect match for the .299 wOBA he put up last season, which indicates he’s likely to resume being a below-average hitter going forward, although he may at least stay fairly close to league average considering last year’s 93 wRC+.
The good news for the Pirates is that even if Kiner-Falefa regresses to the mean, he’ll be a very attractive trade candidate in a market that looks fairly desperate for infield help. The Yankees are already known to be on the hunt for a right-handed bat who can play the infield, and Kiner-Falefa both fits the bill and is a player the club liked enough to acquire in the past. If the Red Sox end up buying this summer, an infielder could make sense for them depending on the status of Alex Bregman. The Mariners are always looking for help on offense, the Brewers could use an upgrade over Caleb Durbin,…
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