Poll: Can The Padres Hold Onto The NL West?

It’s been a big week for baseball in California. After the Padres swept the Giants and the Angels swept the Dodgers, a new leader stood atop the NL West. The Padres had claimed sole possession of first, while the Dodgers slipped into second, one game back of San Diego. The playoff odds will tell you that the Dodgers remain the favorites, but they’re losing momentum. According to FanGraphs, the Dodgers had an 83.8% chance to win their division on Opening Day, while the Padres’ odds were a mere 3.8%. As recently as three weeks ago, L.A.’s odds reached 96.6%, while San Diego’s sat at 1.5%. Yet, the Padres have since won 14 of their last 18 games, while the Dodgers are 8-10 in the same span. Accordingly, FanGraphs now has L.A.’s odds just below two-thirds (63.8%) and San Diego’s just above one-third (36.1%). You can think of it this way: These odds mean the Padres are now about as likely to win the NL West as the White Sox (.364 winning percentage) are to win on any given day. It’s still not likely, but it’s more than possible. The White Sox, as bad as they are, have still won 44 games.

This big week of California baseball will continue into the weekend, as the Dodgers host the Padres for a three-game set at Chavez Ravine. With a series win, the Dodgers would secure the season series tiebreaker, which could prove critical in a close division race. A sweep would give them sole possession of first place once again. Conversely, for the Padres, a series win would keep their chances of winning the tiebreaker alive, while a sweep would give them a four-game cushion over their rivals. With a four-game lead, the Padres would control their own destiny for the 38 games remaining in the regular season; they only have three more against the Dodgers after this weekend.

The Dodgers are lined up to send Clayton Kershaw, Blake Snell, and Tyler Glasnow to the mound. While the team continues to be plagued by injuries – most recently to Tanner Scott, Kirby Yates, Hyeseong Kim, Tommy Edman, and Brock Stewart – the starting rotation is much stronger with Kershaw, Snell, and Glasnow, as well as Emmet Sheehan and Shohei Ohtani, all healthy at the same time, alongside 2025 All-Star Yoshinobu Yamamoto. While the Dodgers have seen their playoff odds plummet over the past three weeks, their starting rotation leads the majors in strikeout rate and SIERA in that time. They also rank second in groundball rate and xERA and third in fWAR. All this to say, the…