Baseball’s summer of continuity is nearly over. That’s only because the weather is about to get cold.
On Friday, July 11, the San Francisco Giants lost to the Los Angeles Dodgers by a score of 2-1. That defeat, along with San Diego’s win over Philadelphia, flipped the two California clubs in the standings, with the Padres taking a half-game lead on the third NL wild-card spot.
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Since that date, none of the 12 teams in playoff position has changed. Those dozen clubs — the Brewers, Phillies, Dodgers, Cubs, Padres, Mets, Tigers, Blue Jays, Astros, Yankees, Red Sox and Mariners — have shuffled among themselves, but that block has remained unchanged for nearly two months. As things currently stand, the team in playoff position with the lowest odds is Seattle, at a still-sturdy 79.7%.
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But remember: One year ago, the Tigers woke up on Sept. 3 with 8.9% playoff odds. Their galavanting run to October had already begun, but the odds were still stacked against them. Right now, multiple teams are surely ruminating on, whispering about or vaguely gesturing toward those magical Tigers. “Why not us?” they’ll say. “Well, because what the 2024 Tigers did was absurd,” the baseball gods will reply.
Still, why wake up in the morning and drag your tush out of bed if you can’t irrationally convince yourself that with a little hard work and a sprinkle of luck, greatness is within reach. God knows I do it.
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Anyway, here are the teams on the outside looking in, with a chance to spoil the playoff party.
Texas Rangers
Record: 72-69 (2 games back of wild card)
Remaining schedule: 6 vs. HOU, 3 vs. MIL, 3 vs. NYM, 3 vs. MIA, 3 vs. MIN, 3 vs. CLE
Playoff odds: 16.2%
Don’t look now, but the Rangers are on a heater and Bruce Bochy’s squad has trampolined its way back into the playoff picture. Interestingly, most of the characters leading this surge were not around for the World Series revelry of 2023. Many of those guys — Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, Nathan Eovaldi — are on the IL, recovering from injuries of varying severity.
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In their stead, Texas’ offense has been propelled by emerging star Wyatt Langford and the maybe-not-washed Joc Pederson. Rookie Jack Leiter also had a stellar August, giving Texas another frontline arm to pair with Jacob deGrom, who, miraculously, has stayed healthy all season.
The Rangers’ +90 run differential — third-best in the…