What underwhelming Bello, Rafaela extensions say about Red Sox rebuild originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
If there’s one deal teams almost never screw up, it’s the mid-level pre-arbitration extension.
We’re not talking monster $200-plus million contracts for superstars like Bobby Witt Jr. or Julio Rodriguez. Those guys are obvious. It’s that sweet spot of $50-$70 million over six or eight years that buys out a little bit of free agency while securing a potential All-Star at a reasonable salary.
There have been so many hits in this category over the last decade, from Reds flamethrower Hunter Greene to Braves Rookie of the Year Michael Harris to Gold Glove shortstop Andrelton Simmons to future MVP Christian Yelich.
The Red Sox avoided those contracts for more than a decade, but in a shift under chief baseball officer Craig Breslow, have already handed out two, and the early returns are … not great.
Standard caveats apply: It’s early, and there’s plenty of time for Brayan Bello and Ceddanne Rafaela to justify their deals, which total just over $100 million. Also, that’s spare change for owner John Henry, who needs to be reminded he can spend on somebody, anybody.
But it’s worth noting that neither player has exactly rocketed into the stratosphere since receiving long-term security.
Bello, who signed a six-year, $55 million extension during spring training, has already served one stint on the injured list while easily delivering the worst performance in a surprisingly strong rotation. He’s 4-2 with a 3.96 ERA, but those surface numbers hide some ugliness under the hood, including a 5.13 FIP and two homers per nine innings. Over a full season, that might translate to 40 bombs.
Making matters worse, his arsenal of a mid-90s sinker and devastating changeup continues to equal a whole that’s less than the sum of its considerable parts. Bello doesn’t strike anyone out, and he rarely misses bats. It’s frankly mystifying.
Rafaela, meanwhile, has delivered exceptional defense in center and passable defense at short, but his bat is another story. The Red Sox feared he’d swing at everything, and he’s swinging at everything.
The rookie is hitting just .192 with a .569 OPS, and his average exit velocity ranks in the bottom five percent of baseball. He’s a potentially exciting player, but not if he strikes out 150 times a year while popping up weakly and never walking. The Red Sox signed him for eight years and $50 million, with a team option that could push the deal to…