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Brandon Lowe (Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images)
October baseball is in the air, meaning the offseason isn’t far behind. We’re identifying the top MLB free agents teams could target this winter by taking a data-driven approach to this year’s crop of players. We will release new position groups in the coming days.
Below, you can find our breakdown of the top 10 free agent first basemen and designated hitters in the 2025 class, including three-year season averages in several key metrics.
Our list leverages work from MLB Trade Rumors for the list of free agents, as well as FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus and Baseball Reference for player win values above baseline, Baseball Savant and Baseball Prospectus for defensive data and FanGraphs for all other data. We encourage our readers and subscribers to consider subscribing to FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus as well.
Lowe delivers every year—outside of a injury plagued 2022—posting a wRC+ of at least 114 in each season dating back to his rookie campaign in 2018. He hits the ball quite hard, with 60 to 65 grade raw power based on his exit velocities. And he does it with an optimized launch angle approach that allows him to hit a lot of home runs, as evidenced by a 30-homer pace in three of his last four seasons. Health is always a concern, but when he’s on the field, he produces. Lowe’s subpar 78% zone contact rate will hold him back from posting a good batting average, but he’s a legit power bat, despite his smaller frame and 75th percentile bat speed.
Lowe looks poised to sign a lucrative deal, and would be a target for a team with a plan to keep him healthy. If a team can get 150 games out of Lowe, he is probably a three-win player or better.
So much for the theory that players perform better in their walk year. Everything about Torres’ game took a step back, notably in his exit velocity and defensive metrics. Losing two mph of top-end exit velocities, as well as trending down defensively, is a worrisome sign for a such a young player. He also appears to have lost some arm strength, going from 70th percentile in 2021 all the way down to 7th percentile this season, per Baseball Savant.
The question with Torres is if this is all because of an undisclosed injury or due to athletic decline. Not all players follow the traditional aging curve and have a graceful decline into their late…