Roki Sasaki has not informed clubs which team he will choose, but the second order effects of his impending signing have begun.
To sign Sasaki, a team will likely have to pay him its entire international bonus pool—and probably more. Teams can trade for an additional 60 percent of their original pool allocations, so any team that wants to maximize its offer to Sasaki would have to trade up.
On talent, that’s a no-brainer decision for any club. The problem is that teams have all committed big portions of their bonus pools to players throughout Latin America. Those deals—unofficial until there’s a signed, approved contract—are lined up years in advance when players are often 13 or 14. Signing Sasaki will likely mean having to back out of those deals.
It also means that any team that thinks it has a chance to sign Sasaki won’t start signing players when the international signing period opens on Jan. 15. Any money spent (aside from $10,000 signings, which are exempt from the bonus pools) means less money a team can offer Sasaki.
As of now, there are at least half a dozen teams that think they are still in the running to sign Sasaki. That means at least 20 percent of the league has their 2025 international signing class in limbo. It’s a spot that no player, trainer or team wants to be in.
Obviously, the team that ultimately signs Sasaki will lose players from its class. But given the uncertainty leading into Jan. 15, any team that is still on Sasaki has its signing class in jeopardy. As each day gets closer to Jan. 15, the tension is growing.
In one case, a team has already lost a player it expected to sign. Dominican shortstop Darell Morel, a lanky 6-foot-5 lefthanded hitter with big power upside, was set to be one of the Dodgers’ top 2025 signings. With the uncertainty of the Dodgers’ situation given that they might land Sasaki, Morel now is set to sign with the Pirates. In fact, Sasaki’s decision—or indecision, at this point—will pay off for Morel, who will sign for close to $1.8 million, a bonus that’s around twice as much money he would have gotten from the Dodgers.
For other players, it remains to be seen how they will be affected financially. As the start of the signing period nears, more trainers are realizing that they need to make contingency plans in case the team with which their player has a deal signs Sasaki. While players typically shut things down around the holidays at the end of the…