Roki Sasaki was named the No. 1 overall prospect in MLB by Baseball America and MLB Pipeline this week. That means his $6.5 million sweetheart deal just got even better for the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Because those two outlets opted to rank Sasaki as a legitimate prospect, the Dodgers can officially receive a significant draft pick should Sasaki make their Opening Day roster (or be promoted in the first two weeks of the season) and either win Rookie of the Year or place in the top 3 of MVP or Cy Young voting in any of the next three seasons.
Sasaki is currently BetMGM’s favorite to win the 2025 NL Rookie of the Year award at +200 odds.
This is all due to MLB’s Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI), the program instituted in the last collective bargaining agreement to disincentive teams from playing the service-time game with their top prospects. A player is eligible to earn his team a draft pick if he a) has rookie eligibility at the start of the season, b) accrues a near-full season’s worth of service time and c) appears in at least two of the Top 100 lists from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline and ESPN.
For example, the Kansas City Royals will pick 28th overall, the first pick after the first round, in the 2025 MLB Draft because star shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. finished in the Top 3 in AL MVP voting last year.
There is an exception that rules out “foreign professionals” from being eligible, but that applies only if they’re 25 or older. Sasaki is 23 years old, which means he is for all intents and purposes just another player on a minor-league contract, which is why MLB teams could offer him only a fraction of his open-market value in free agency.
There was some speculation the prospect outlets could have opted to not rank Sasaki given that he’s hardly a traditional prospect. However, he was officially signed as an international amateur free agent, despite having played professionally for five years.
Obviously, the Dodgers aren’t complaining. They’ve had nothing to complain about all offseason.
Who could challenge Roki Sasaki for NL Rookie of the Year?
Right behind Sasaki on the BetMGM odds board is Washington Nationals outfielder Dylan Crews, the No. 2 overall pick of the 2023 Draft who made his MLB debut late last season. His odds come in at +400 and he is ranked by MLB Pipeline as baseball’s No. 4 prospect.
Also at +400 is Chicago Cubs shortstop Matt Shaw, MLB Pipeline’s No. 19 prospect. While he doesn’t quite have Crews’ prospect pedigree, he has an open window to be…