Believe it or not, we’re near the halfway point of the 2024 season. As baseball die-hards know, the All-Star break is actually past the halfway point, rendering our “first half” and “second half” stats not technically accurate. Here’s how close we are. Entering Friday, June 21, the Padres have played 79 games. The Guardians have the fewest games played at 72. More than half the teams have played at least 75 games. So by the end of next weekend, every team will have surpassed its halfway point in the 2024 season.
As such, let’s start by looking at each of the six divisions. We’ll start this week with the American League East. This is a gambling odds breakdown, but it’s for everyone in that it’s basically a discussion of which team is most likely to win the division while also noting what team(s) could sneak in there.
It’s good timing with this division because the top two teams just wrapped up a series. The Orioles visited the Yankees in Yankee Stadium and took two of three with the rubber game being a 17-5 blowout win. The Yankees technically have a 0.5-game lead, though the winning percentages are both .662 and the Orioles have one fewer loss.
Is it just a two-team race? Time to dive in.
Yankees, 51-26 (-260)
They’ve gotten to this point with only one Gerrit Cole start and zero wins with him as the starter. The work from the rest of the rotation in Cole’s absence was a big cause for confidence and there have been reasons for optimism in the bullpen, too, notably from Luke Weaver.
Any offense with Juan Soto and Aaron Judge is going to look tough and they do, but there’s decent lineup depth here and Giancarlo Stanton having a healthy power year really gives a boost. This is to say that they aren’t among the league leaders in runs only because of Soto and Judge. There are plenty of bats here in the everyday lineup.
There’s no reason to believe they are going away. The Yankees always get an odds boost with the general public because they are the Yankees, but the number doesn’t feel too far off. This is a loaded team that has survived months without the 2023 Cy Young winner and just got him back.
Plus, the Yankees will surely be aggressive in addressing areas of need in front of the trade deadline because this is a “win now” team and not winning the World Series in 15 years is an eternity in Yankees years.
In several other divisions, I’d be strongly…
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