All season, RoboScout examined the top prospects at each level by taking minor league surface stats and underlying data and projecting their estimated peak major league-equivalent performance.
Unsurprisingly, the players showing the most impressive major league projections are often the prospects that scouts and front offices around the league hold in the highest regard. But defensive position, ability and makeup can often account for ranking discrepancies, and every year there are prospects whose fantasy projections do not align with the industry assessments.
Today, RoboScout identifies prospects it believes are being undervalued on prospect lists commensurate with their anticipated potential MLB output.
In many cases where two players have different surface stats but with similar underlying data, a winning strategy is to understand that the surface stats will tend to converge, leading to potential buying opportunities for the less-performing prospect. Or, sometimes, selling opportunities for the better-performing prospect.
Let’s go around the diamond to find some underrated prospects per RoboScout at each position.
Daiverson Gutierrez, C, Mets
Gutierrez posted a disappointing sub-80 wRC+ across 211 Dominican Summer League plate appearances in 2023 despite signing for just short of $2 million. He repeated the DSL to begin 2024, but quickly earned a promotion to the complex level after just 14 games. Gutierrez produced a 164 wRC+ in addition to his already-excellent defense.
After another 15 games at the Complex and a lofty 170 wRC+ with two home runs as an 18-year-old, Gutierrez was promoted again to Low-A St. Lucie, where he played in only eight games with an unsightly negative 11 wRC+. His metrics under the hood are of particular interest to RoboScout.
Whereas in 2023, when he had a contact rate of only 72% and barrel rate of 5%, Gutierrez significantly improved both measures with a contact rate of 83% and barrel rate of 18% in 2024. Both metrics are plus for his age. Additionally, he improved his 90th percentile exit velocity from 99.4 mph in 2023 to 102.6 mph in 2024, which is higher than fellow 18-year-old slugger Arjun Nimmala (Blue Jays).
It’s a small sample size (134 plate appearances), but with his defensive ability already providing a high floor, Gutierrez is showing the potential to also bring a productive offensive element to his game.
Jonathon Long, 1B, Cubs
At the start of September, I wrote that the 22-year-old…