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Willy Adames (Photo by Tom DiPace)
October baseball is in the air, meaning the offseason isn’t far behind. We’re identifying the top MLB free agents teams could target this winter by taking a data-driven approach to this year’s crop of players. We will release new position groups in the coming days.
Below, you can find our breakdown of the top 10 free agent first basemen and designated hitters in the 2025 class, including three-year season averages in several key metrics.
Our list leverages work from MLB Trade Rumors for the list of free agents, as well as FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus and Baseball Reference for player win values above baseline, Baseball Savant and Baseball Prospectus for defensive data and FanGraphs for all other data. We encourage our readers and subscribers to consider subscribing to FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus, as well.
Adames will be on the right side of 30 as he enters free agency is the most complete shortstop option available by a wide margin. I’m only presenting three years of data above, which would suggest that Willy’s defense is on the decline. However, his glove this year was about five runs better than in 2020-21 according to Baseball Savant. Baseball Prospectus has it as about five runs worse compared to 2020-21. The more granular fielding metrics available on Baseball Savant, such as his arm strength and sprint speed, point to a player with the same level of athletic ability. He should be able to play a competent shortstop for a few more years, at least.
With the bat, Adames shows the importance of hitting the ball in the air. He has about average raw power, as measured by his 90th percentile exit velocity and average exit velocities (both slightly below average this year) and his max exit velocity (plus), but he hits a lot of home runs because of his 20-degree average launch angle. This is the template for a player like Arjun Nimmala in the Blue Jays system, whose underlying data is similar.
If we dig deeper, he’s posting above average launch angles against all pitch types, with the optimized swing sacrificing zone contact and regular contact. He’s aggressive in the zone against all pitch types, with about average chase, pointing to strong swing decisions. This is the recipe for hitting 30 homers with average raw power: be aggressive swinging at hittable pitches, and hit them in the air.
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