We’re more than halfway through the offseason, and the context of the trade and free agent markets has changed wildly since the offseason began in early November. Just under half of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents have signed — with virtually every pitcher who came off the board topping (trouncing, in a few cases) expectations in what’s been a chaotic rush to add rotation help. We could theoretically re-rank the top remaining free agents based on how their earning power looks now, but such a list would generally consist of the same names up top and a bunch of one-year deal candidates at the bottom.
The trade market, on the other hand, is an entirely different story. Twenty percent of the players we listed at the beginning of the season have changed hands already — it’d be 23%, had Nolan Arenado not vetoed a trade to Houston — and at least a handful of the remaining names are still veritable locks to move. The offseason has already produced quite a few new trade candidates, as revelations about certain teams’ financial flexibility (or more specifically, their lack thereof) and certain players’ motivations have come to light.
For instance, the Cardinals would likely have welcomed the opportunity to trade Willson Contreras or Sonny Gray as they refocus on player development and look to scale back payroll … but both players somewhat surprisingly informed the club they’re not inclined to waive their no-trade rights despite that move away from a win-now mentality. Tampa Bay needed to scale back payroll but opted to deal from the rotation rather than move Yandy Diaz or Brandon Lowe, both of whom are now expected to stay put. The A’s might’ve thought harder about trading Brent Rooker had he rebuffed their extension overtures, but he put pen to paper on a five-year contract recently. Each was on the initial list, but clearly, they’re not going to be on the updated one.
Knowing what we know now, let’s revisit the trade market and run through some of the top names who could change hands between now and Opening Day:
The Yankees might’ve been motivated to trade Stroman even before signing Max Fried, but their eight-year deal with the longtime Braves ace now gives New York a rotation of Fried, Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt. Stroman, who’s owed $18MM in 2025, is their sixth-best starter. His contract also contains a conditional player option, which he’d unlock at 140 innings pitched. That’d…
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