Selection Monday is rarely shocking. Disappointing, perhaps. Aggravating, maybe. By the book, often. But surprising isn’t typically in the cards for the reveal of the NCAA Tournament bracket.
This year, Selection Monday brought some real surprises. In, Grand Canyon and Mississippi. Out, North Carolina State and Rutgers. Depending on your perspective, they led to infuriation or elation. The surprise was universal, however.
College baseball bracketology is an inexact science. But based on prior committee selections, NC State looked to be safely in the field after it advanced to the ACC Tournament championship game, clinching a winning conference record and a top-35 RPI. Sure, it was 14-15 in ACC play going into the tournament and was seeded 10th, but a winning conference record and that RPI are enough to put a team on the right side of the bubble. Rutgers, as the runner-up in both the Big Ten regular season and conference tournament, also figured to be safe. Meanwhile, Grand Canyon’s RPI (50) left it vulnerable and Ole Miss’ sub-.500 SEC record rendered it a coin-flip at best.
In building the final Baseball America Projected Field of 64 on Sunday night, I didn’t even stop to consider that NC State might be out. I figured an ACC team was closer to the bubble than most realized, but I didn’t think it would be the team that finished as the runner-up in the conference tournament. I put Rutgers in the last four in, but I figured its status as Big Ten runner-up would carry the day. I had a lingering feeling that Ole Miss would get in but lacked the gumption to predict it in print. And while I sympathized with Grand Canyon for getting upset in the Western Athletic Conference Tournament, I left it on the wrong side of the bubble fairly easily.
But the committee is different every year and it is made up of 10 people with their own ideas about how to select the 33 teams that receive at-large bids. This year, the committee broke precedent with its decisions. Committee…
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