Julio Rodríguez has elite projections for 2023

If you answered “an MVP front-runner” and “right now,” well, you agree with one of baseball’s biggest projection models: Steamer.

The Mariners phenom is projected for 5.9 wins above replacement, which would make him the third-most valuable player in baseball, behind only the perennially great Juan Soto (projected 7.1 WAR) and Aaron Judge (6.9) on the heels of his historic 62-home-run season.

Steamer has Rodríguez finishing 2023 with 32 home runs and 25 stolen bases, making him one of four players projected for a 25-25 season along with Ronald Acuña Jr., Bobby Witt Jr. and Jazz Chisholm Jr. He’s projected to be a top-10 hitter in the Majors with a 142 wRC+, and coupled with his baserunning ability and strong defense in center field, that vaults Rodríguez into “potential MVP” territory.

J-Rod is projected to be better than Mike Trout (5.6 WAR). He’s projected to be better than Acuña (5.4) and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (5.4). He’s projected to be better than the players getting megadeals this offseason, like Carlos Correa (5.7), Trea Turner (4.7), Xander Bogaerts (4.5) and Rafael Devers (4.5).

Even for a reigning Rookie of the Year and budding young superstar, this kind of projection is rare. Rodríguez is an electric talent, surely, but he’s played only one season in the big leagues, 132 games total.

Soto, for example, who now tops the projection charts as one of the best hitters of his generation, wasn’t even among the top 20 player projections coming off his rookie season in 2018. Though he was the NL Rookie of the Year runner-up and posted a .292/.406/.517 slash line as a 19-year-old, Soto was projected for 4.3 WAR in 2019, tied for 21st in preseason projections. Acuña, who won the NL Rookie of the Year Award over Soto as a 20-year-old, was projected for 3.4 WAR, outside the top 25.

Or take Judge, who hit a rookie-record 52 home runs as a 25-year-old in 2017. He was projected at 3.9 WAR going into 2018, tied for 23rd. Cody Bellinger, who hit 39 home runs opposite Judge as a 21-year-old rookie in the NL, was projected for 2.5 WAR in ’18.

In other words, even other immediate game-changer rookie outfielders don’t always get the shine that Rodríguez is getting in the projections as a sophomore.

There are really only a few recent examples of young phenoms getting an MVP-level projection from Steamer going from Year 1 to Year 2.

A 21-year-old Wander Franco was projected to be a top-10 player in baseball in 2022 after his rookie season in ’21. So was a…