How Does Paul Skenes Compare To Top MLB Pitching Prospects?

Few college pitchers in recent memory have garnered the level of praise and buzz that Louisiana State righthander Paul Skenes has this season. Some evaluators have even called him the best collegiate pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg, who was drafted No. 1 overall by the Nationals in 2009.

Every year a group of top-of-the-draft prospects earns praise among public analysts and draft writers. However, more often than we’d care to admit the praise falls into the hyperbole category with a majority of these players failing to live up to the lofty expectations doled out by those that cover this beat.

In order to determine whether Skenes’ recent buzz matches what the industry believes, we spoke with a variety of analysts and high-level decision makers in the game to see how Skenes compares to the top pitching prospects in the game: the Orioles’ Grayson Rodriguez, the Marlins’ Eury Perez and the Phillies’ Andrew Painter.

The Stuff

First let’s discuss Skenes’ stuff. After two years at Air Force and consecutive summers spent with the Collegiate National Team, Skenes flashed a mid-90s fastball with average shape, a tight gyro slider in the mid 80s and a changeup. There’s been noticeable differences this season. Skenes’ fastball velocity is up to 97-98 mph, touching 100 mph regularly. While the shape on the fastball is still somewhat pedestrian he’s seen tremendous success with the pitch.

His slider, on the other hand, has taken a significant step forward in terms of shape and power. His tight, gyro-style slider has been replaced by a sweeper with velocity in the 84-87 mph range. He now features a rare combination of power and movement, so much so that Skenes’ slider would rate highly when compared to the best sliders in the major leagues on stuff alone.

The pitch has continually stifled opposing batters this season with a combined slash line of .056/.073/.074 against the pitch. The pitch has a combination of remarkable production traits as well, with a 67% strike rate, a 67% whiff rate and a 40% chase rate. Only one extra-base hit has been allowed by Skenes’ slider as well.

Skenes’ changeup has seen good results but has been rarely used this season, accounting for just 62 of Skenes’ 851 pitches in 2023. He does have an opposing slash line of .200/.200/.200 against it with a 50% whiff rate, a 30% chase rate and no extra-base hits allowed. There’s certainly some optimism around the pitch and a belief that he just hasn’t needed to…