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St.Lucie Mets’ Jesus Baez during a MiLB game against the Tampa Tarpons on April 19,2024 at Clover Park.
(Photo/Tom DiPace)
It’s still very early in the minor league season as all four full-season levels are in their third week of action. While we’re still dealing with incredibly small sample sizes, it’s important to note development year over year, as Ben Badler did yesterday in his pitching breakout article. A jump in a pitcher’s stuff is recognizable within a few innings of work or even a few batters, but we need a greater sample to evaluate changes to a hitter’s approach or in-game power.
While we’re still a few weeks away from a similar deep dive on hitting, we can identify young players showing outlier skills that differentiate themselves from their peers. It’s easy to identify players who standout when it comes to power skills as teenagers.
Today we’ll look at 10 hitters who meet the following thresholds: 19 years of age or younger, a contact rate above 69%, a in-zone contact rate of 80% or higher, a chase rate of 31% or below and a 90th percentile exit velocity of 102 mph or higher.
As we explored earlier this year, exit velocities improve as players age. This stands up to reason as players reach their physical peaks in their mid 20s. An average 90th percentile exit velocity for a 19-year-old based on last season’s data is 99.1 mph. The average doesn’t meet the 102 mph threshold we have set here until age 23, meaning these players all have shown above-average raw with average or better plate skills.
Josue De Paula, OF, Dodgers
The Dodgers outfielder became a Top 100 Prospect late this offseason and is one of the most impressive combinations of plate skills and raw power in the minor leagues. De Paula made headlines in the backfields for consecutive springs and there’s some feeling within the industry that he’s on the cusp of a power breakout. De Paula rarely misses in-zone with a 86.4% in-zone miss rate. He hardly ever expands the zone as well with a chase rate of just 15.3%. While De Paula’s skills are fully actualized and easy to see, it’s his power potential that has scouts and fans alike excited. His 90th percentile exit velocity of 105.8 mph is well above the major league average of 103.7 mph. The biggest issue for De Paula is learning to make his best contact in the air, and unlocking pull-side power.
Jefferson Rojas, SS, Cubs
There’s a group of high helium…