In a sport as wildly unpredictable as baseball, just how important is a seed-line when it comes to paving a path to the College World Series?
One part to the answer: No. 1 regional seeds have accounted for just under 75 percent of all CWS participants since the NCAA baseball tournament’s current format was introduced in 1999.
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So, do the top-ranked teams have a fast track to Omaha? According to the data, more often than not, yes. But does the team at the very top of the rankings always win it all? History says no. We’ll get to that later. First, let’s review the tournament format:
The current NCAA tournament system splits the initial 64-team field into 16 four-team regionals. Each quartet is seeded Nos. 1-4, which determines the double-elimination regional schedule. That means we have 16 1-seeds, 16 2-seeds, 16 3-seeds and 16 4-seeds at the start of the tournament.
Here’s how regional seed representation has been spread out in the eight-team College World Series field each year from 1999-2022.
How often each regional seed advances to the College World Series (1999-2022):
| year | 1-seeds | 2-seeds | 3-seeds | 4-seeds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 2021 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 2020 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2019 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 2018 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 2017 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 2016 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| 2015 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 2014 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 2013 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2012 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2011 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 2010 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2009 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 2008 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2007 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| 2006 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2005 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2004 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 2003 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 2002 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2001 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2000 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 1999 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| TOTAL: | 136 (73.9%) | 30 (16.3%) | 16 (8.7%) | 2 (1.1%) |
According to over two decades’ worth of data, an average of six out of eight College World Series participants each year are No. 1 regional seeds. The 2013 CWS remains the only example where all eight participants came from the top-seed line.
There have been eight instances of seven No. 1 seeds to make the final field. That includes 2008, when No. 4 seed Fresno State was the outlier. And guess what? Those Cinderella Bulldogs went on to have one of…
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