Image credit:
Ole Miss’ Ethan Groff (Photo by Eddie Kelly/ProLook Photos)
As the calendar flips to May this week, it’s time to start bubble watch for the 2024 NCAA Tournament.
Over the next month, I’ll be tracking the development of the Field of 64 and, most importantly, what every team needs to do to secure an at-large bid.
For these purposes, I’ll sort teams that are in at-large contention into three camps:
1) Locks. Reserved for teams that could lose out and still make the NCAA Tournament. That’s a bit nit-picky, but when I say lock, I mean it.
2) Should be in. Generally, a team that would be solidly in if the field was selected today.
3) Work to do. Nothing is guaranteed for these teams.
At this stage, the difference between “should be in” and “work to do” is somewhat nebulous. By the end of the month, it will matter much more.
In the conference records listed, I include any win against a conference team, whether it counts toward the conference standings or not because that is how the information is presented to the selection committee. So, for instance, Oklahoma State gets credit for a conference win for its mid-week victory against Oklahoma.
Buckle up and get ready for an exciting month as we push ever closer on the Road to Omaha.
ACC
We’ll start with Clemson and North Carolina, the two division leaders, as locks. They’re the only two teams in the conference with more than 15 conference wins, which is typically the threshold for ACC teams to make the tournament (though NC State did get in last year with 14 and Notre Dame got left out with 15). Much of the rest of the conference is already solidly positioned one way or the other. This is not the league to watch in May if you’re looking for bubble drama.
Locks: Clemson, North Carolina
Should be in: Duke, Florida State, NC State, Virginia, Wake Forest
Work to do: Georgia Tech, Louisville, Virginia Tech
Duke (30-14, 14-10; RPI: 19; SOS: 41): I could lock up Duke, but I’m going to hold to the threshold of 15 ACC wins. The Blue Devils don’t need to sweat this, however. They can be fully focused on the hosting race.
Florida State (34-9, 13-8; RPI: 6; SOS: 23): I could lock Florida State up, but I’m going to hold to the threshold of 15 ACC wins. The Seminoles are more on the track to being a top-eight seed than worrying about the bubble, however.
Georgia Tech (27-15, 11-10; RPI: 53; SOS: 91): The Yellow Jackets went 11-5 in…