Luis Garcia injury: After losing starter to Tommy John surgery, where can the Astros turn for rotation help?

The reigning-champion Houston Astros on Friday were brought low by the news that right-hander Luis Garcia, a core member of the rotation, will need to undergo Tommy John surgery and thus miss the remainder of the 2023 season. Now comes the consequent matter of how to address his absence. 

To state the obvious, that won’t be easy, particularly a month or so into the regular season. The 26-year-old Garcia has been a steady presence for Houston, as he’s pitched to a 3.61 ERA (115 ERA+) and 3.80 K/BB ratio since becoming a staff fixture late in the COVID-abbreviated 2020 season. Over parts of four MLB seasons in Houston, Garcia has made 63 starts and six relief appearances, and that’s not counting his six starts and two relief appearances in the postseason. Being that this is early May, it’s too soon for any kind of trade market to have crystallized, particularly for a role as terminally coveted as the starting pitcher. That means Houston will need to look internally, at least for now. 

Not so long ago, the Astros had rotation depth that was the envy of almost every team. Then Justin Verlander, last year’s American League Cy Young winner, departed for the Mets via free agency. Compounding matters is that Lance McCullers Jr. has yet to throw a pitch that counts this season because of an elbow strain, but he’s making progress. McCullers recently told reporters that he’s been throwing off the mound and is working toward being able to throw breaking balls at full capacity. There’s no clear timetable just yet, but there’s forward momentum toward a minor-league rehab assignment. Then there’s righty José Urquidy, who recently landed on the injured list with shoulder discomfort. It’s not yet certain how long he’ll be out. All of that has left Houston deeply dependent upon young and most unproved arms and waiting with bated breath for McCullers and Urquidy to return. 

For now, that’s the only path forward for Houston – a reliance, and perhaps over-reliance, on youth and unknown quantities. Right now, the Astros’ five-man rotation includes ace Framber Valdez and the highly capable Cristian Javier. The remaining 60%, however, promises much less certainty.